New Poll Shows Tight Race Between Trump and Harris in Iowa

A recent poll shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just 4 percentage points in Iowa, highlighting a closer-than-expected race in a state where Trump has previously seen strong support. The survey, conducted from September 8-11, reflects a notable shift in voter preferences, contrasting with earlier polling that showed Trump with a larger lead against President Joe Biden. The results suggest that Iowa, long considered a Trump stronghold, may be more competitive in the upcoming November election.

Earlier in the year, Selzer's late spring poll showed Trump beating President Joe Biden by a staggering 18 points, a far cry from the narrower margin with Harris. The data suggests a reshaping of voter sentiment in Iowa, a state Trump has historically dominated. In 2020, Trump won Iowa by 8.2% over Biden and by 9.4% over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Selzer’s polling has earned widespread credibility, given her track record of accuracy in predicting election outcomes in Iowa. She famously forecasted Barack Obama’s upset win over Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Iowa caucuses and Ted Cruz’s victory in the 2016 Iowa GOP caucus. Even in the contentious 2020 election, when many pollsters believed Biden could flip Iowa, Selzer correctly predicted Trump’s comfortable lead.

The poll also includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who remains a presence on Iowa’s ballot. In the previous poll, RFK Jr. garnered 9%, signaling a potential wildcard effect in the upcoming election.

With these new results, the race in Iowa is far from certain, and Harris's relatively strong showing suggests that Trump may face a tougher road ahead in the state of Iowa than he did in 2020 or 2016.